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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to energize a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance & Closed Debates

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if polling evidence suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. While EU relations may not be the boiling pot in UK politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.

And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people by which young people can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.

David Lammy muses openly regarding the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism

Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. Firstly, he thinks any customs union agreement has been made much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from Europe.

An Alarming Document and Strategic Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to immigration. It contains only one reference of the UK, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from concluding that this makes America an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter and The Echo of 2018

This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt to become leader but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a group of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Risk and A Prudent Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the effect just a few words had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe which the PM should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.